
Light-vehicle sales in the U.S. are expected to continue their decline in 2009. Global Insight, a firm that has been forecasting sales since the 1960s, is predicting sales of 13.4 million units next year. That figure is slightly down from the 13.8 million units automakers are expected to sell in 2008. (For comparison to recent years, 16.1 million vehicles sold in 2007 and 16.5 million units sold in 2006.) Global Insight makes note of the current U.S. credit crisis and the worsening global economy, citing the worldwide financial situation is more detrimental to auto sales than oil at $200-a-barrel. When oil is high, at least the countries benefiting from the oil profits continue to purchase cars – unlike today. While analysts differ on when we may see a turnaround, the firm feels it could take until 2013 for sales to recover to levels seen just a few years ago.
Hopes for Renault's possible return to the American market were stymied when it became apparent that General Motors wasn't interested in a far-reaching partnership with the brand and its Nissan ally a few years ago. It seems that the French automaker is still very interested in re-entering the U.S. and would consider other possible partnerships. One particular option that popped up at the Paris Motor Show is a purchase of the Chrysler brand if Cerberus were interested in parting ways with it. Interestingly, Chrysler was the automaker that Renault pawned its last U.S. efforts off on. It wouldn't be an easy time to enter the U.S. market, as every automaker is currently posting lower-than-hoped-for sales figures, including Chrysler, which reported numbers down by nearly a third. Still, Chrysler has plenty of dealerships in the U.S. and Renault would love to have access to some of them. Plus, Chrysler is rumored to be in search of a new mid-sized sedan platform to build off, something that Renault would be more than capable of providing. Another more costly option would be for Renault to go it alone, producing three brand-new vehicles just for the U.S. We'll keep an eye on these rumors and report back if anything more substantial breaks.



Toyota Financial Services recently leaped over GMAC Financial services to take the lead as the biggest U.S. auto lender in terms of loan and lease contract volume. The study by AutoCount (a unit of the Experian Automotive company) estimates that Toyota captured 6.35% of the market from January through June, while GMAC had 6.2% for a close second place. Rounding out the top five were Chase Auto Finance, American Honda Finance, and Ford Credit (in that order). As GMAC has made major cutbacks in leasing over the summer, many industry experts expect Toyota to hold its lead through the end of the year. A spokesperson from GMAC was quick to point out that the study did not include two wholly owned subsidiaries: Nuvel Credit and National Auto Finance. When those two companies are included, GMAC's share increases to 6.72 percent -- effectively placing them at the top again. While the automakers battle for the title position, the independent banks are the ones to watch. They've been steadily increasing their lending share as the Detroit 3 struggle with the rising costs of funds and declining credit ratings.
A quick glance at today's announcements from America's largest automaker is an easy indicator that the U.S. auto market, at the very least, is under as strong as recession as could be imagined. According to Presidential hopeful Barack Obama, the entire industry as a whole is facing a "perfect storm" of "record gas prices, rising steel prices, a credit market contraction that has made it more difficult for consumers to purchase autos, and a weakening economy that has shed jobs for six straight months."
As the auto industry goes, so go the livelihoods of countless workers -- both directly employed by the Detroit 3 and indirectly supported by suppliers, dealers and the like -- making today's announcements from GM a "sobering reminder" of the current state of the U.S. economy. Still, Obama holds out hope that the right Federal policies could dig the industry out of the hole it currently finds itself in. What it likely doesn't mean, though, is a bailout, according to Obama's likely opponent, John McCain, and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez.

Volvo hasn't been doing too hot lately, posting a $1.73 billion loss over the past five years as it flails to find its niche. Sales of almost every Volvo product have declined in 2007, with the S60 falling by 28.1 percent, the XC90 dropping 5.6 percent and the V70 station wagon losing 7.7 percent. For June of 2008, Volvo only moved 7,001 vehicles, down 14.2 percent compared to last year. Something has to be done on the retail side, and according to Automotive News, dealers are on their way out.
The automaker is looking to cut out approximately 30 percent of its U.S. dealer network by the close of next year, however, Volvo retailers won't be cut in Europe, nor Russia, where Volvo is a leader in premium vehicle sales.
Volvo recognizes that part of its problem is fuel efficiency, so it's focusing on producing smaller vehicles and pushing its C30 hatch hard in the States. A hybrid version of the XC60 is in the works, but that won't be out for at least another three years... in Germany, and as a stopgap, Volvo plans to implement start-stop technology on its smaller engines.

