With the U.S. Senate denying the Detroit 3 relief plan, it looks like oil prices might continue to tumble. Our sibling site BloggingStocks is predicting barrel prices might drop as low as $35 as a result. This comes on the heels of predictions of higher prices in the near future.
It had been thought that OPEC and possibly Russia would be curtailing production, which might have led to higher prices, but if the U.S. auto industry collapses, demand for oil could plummet. That would result in even lower oil and gas prices.
In fact, oil prices started dropping Thursday night as soon as traders heard that Senate Republicans had blocked the bill, with barrel prices checking in at $44.76 as of Friday morning. We just saw regular unleaded for $1.59/gal at a station down the street this morning and thought we had woken up in 2000. Can sub-$1 gas be far away?
Although they're a big part of the Congressional pitch to get some federal funds, green cars aren't going to make the Detroit 3 profitable on their own any time soon. Take the Chevrolet Volt for example. When GM CEO Rick Wagoner testified that the Volt is being pushed into production for 2011, he added that, "It will not be at that point fully cost competitive." That statement might seem like the understatement of the century to some.
According to this CNN Money piece, GM has actually spent about $750 million to develop the Volt, much of that in battery research. Apparently GM recognizes the need to stay ahead of (or at least alongside) the competition in developing new technology and is willing to take the risk of spending that kind of money even in desperate times. Of course, some of that money will eventually be spread across the range when the Volt's powertrain and battery advances get shared with other GM models. Still, it's unlikely the Volt will add to rather than bring down the bottom line until a second generation model is introduced, which may not be until 2014-2016.
The president of the United Auto Workers union, Ron Gettelfinger, said in a recent CNN interview that U.S. automakers need to tell Congress they will limit corporate pay, bonuses and severance packages in return for more government loans. Gettelfinger also said that the Detroit Three only need the loans to hold them over during these tough times. While the first statement from the union's top player seems like basic common sense, the second seems highly optimistic... especially when one considers the size of the industry and the depth of its issues. While no single event (or loan, for that matter) will likely turn around the downslide, all of those affected by the auto industry's potential demise will be interested in tomorrow's events. That's because Dec. 2 is the day House and Senate leaders told the automakers that they need to submit a "credible restructuring plan" that's convincing enough to get Congress to open its wallet when it reconvenes next week.
